I'm going to try and hit all the prospects whose numbers I will be following, including the big name prospects. I'm excluding Trevor Rosenthal and Shelby Miller since following them will not be hard. I expect them in the majors the whole year. This list will be players who will be playing in the minors most of the year.
I'll list their 2012 numbers - all of these players will have great 2012 numbers or a specific stat that is very encouraging - and then what I will look for in 2013 - usually involving them improving in an area or at least maintaining their numbers. I am not a scout so there will be no talk of tools.
Pitchers to watch
Carlos Martinez
2012 - A+ Stats: 33 IP, 9.27 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 3.00 ERA, .319 BABIP against; AA Stats: 71.1 IP, 7.32 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 2.90 ERA, .276 BABIP against
I don't think the Cardinals planned for the 21-year-old* pitching prospect to pitch in AA last year. He more or less forced their hand by dominating the competition in A+. He struck out over a batter per inning while walking less than league average - all this as a 20-year-old.
On the surface, his AA doesn't ring any bells. His ERA actually drops. However, I'd start him in AA this season. His strikeout rate lowered significantly without a drop in the walk rate to go with it. I'm worried he's not ready for AAA and I'd like to see him raise that K rate before they promote him. Plus, the Cardinals have time to wait for him with Miller and Wacha close.
What to look for in 2013 - Improves his K rate back to A+ levels in AA
ETA - 2014
*The age I call the player is whatever their age is on April 1.
Michael Wacha
2012 Stats: 3 levels combined - 21 IP, 17.1 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 0.86 ERA, .233 BABIP against
Those 2012 stats look like a typo. Something's wrong with them right? There's no way he actually struck out almost two batters an inning while barely walking anybody. As a pitcher most scouts described as a fast riser, yet he who would top out as a #3 starter, that is incredibly astounding. I don't really care if people still say he's at best a #3 starter, because I disagree with them. Those stats aren't #3 starter.
There's a single thing that causes some caution. He hasn't pitched as a starter yet. With those stats, that is a minor concern and I have little worry the transition will be smooth. Also, 21 innings isn't a huge sample size. His spring training stats somewhat alleviate the concern as he dominated ST similar to how he dominated the minors.
What to look for in 2013: Pitching successfully as a starter in AAA - If he is half as good as a starter as he was last year, I like his future. (Literally chop his K rate in half and double his BB rate, and he's still a great prospect)
ETA - 2014
Seth Maness
2012 Stats: A+ - 45 IP, 5.67 K/9, 0.20 BB/9, 2.15 ERA, .282 BABIP against; AA - 123.2 IP, 6.04 K/9, 0.65 BB/9, 3.27 ERA, .278 BABIP against
Congratulations to the 10 players who managed to draw a walk against Maness. Yes, that is how many players he walked in the entire 2012 season. That's 168.2 IP for the record. That's pretty much the only stat that's keeping this guy as a prospect. It's a hugely important stat as keeping hitters off base is the objective of baseball, but it's the only stat.
He barely saw a decline when he went to AA. His K rate rose, but that was slightly off-set when his BB rate also rose. He's definitely a pitcher to follow purely to see if he's going to be successful. He has managed a career out of walking almost literally no one. He doesn't strike out many people, he doesn't prevent home runs at a good rate, and hitters have a reasonably good average against him. But he does not give hitters a free pass. They have to earn it with their bat.
What to look for in 2013 - I'd like to see an increase in K rate, though at least maintaining his 2012 stats would make an MLB future possible.
ETA - 2014
Maikel Cleto
2012 Stats: AAA: 53.2 IP, 11.07 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 5.37 ERA, .346 BABIP against; MLB - 9 IP, 15.0 K/9, 2.0 B/9, 7.00 ERA, .474 BABIP against
Well, here's a puzzle. He's on here for two reasons despite his bad ERAs: his K/9 is phenomenal and his high BABIP**. He's also only 23-years-old. Advanced stats like him a lot. A lot. He walks batters more than the average pitcher, but it's not that bad when you consider how many hitters he strikes out.
He was pretty unlucky in 2012. A .346 BABIP could be the fault of the pitcher, however Cleto had a .285 BABIP in AAA last year. It's probably random. Also, most fans remember Cleto, because he either struck out the guy or gave up a homer. He doesn't have a homer problem. He had a 0.67 HR/9 in AAA, which is below average. In the majors, 40% of the fly balls given up by Cleto became a home run. The league average HR/FB is 11.2%. Unless you think Cleto has some kind of ability to allow home runs at a historic rate, that will also go down.
Think about it: a pitcher with a 15/2 K/BB ratio in 9 innings is usually an elite pitcher. In 9 innings, Cleto allowed 4 homers when normal fly ball luck indicates he'd allow just a single home run. Look for his numbers to improve.
What to look for in 2013: Really, just look for his ERA to drop significantly; his K/BB and HR rates all indicate what should have been a 3.16 ERA. (That was his FIP)
ETA: mid-2013
**BABIP = batting average on balls in play - It's assumed pitchers can't control it, unless there's sample evidence to contrary - .290-.310 is neutral luck - Anything below, pitcher is getting "lucky," anything above, the pitcher is getting "unlucky" - It could be due to talent, but usually the sample size is small enough to assume the pitcher has no control.
**BABIP = batting average on balls in play - It's assumed pitchers can't control it, unless there's sample evidence to contrary - .290-.310 is neutral luck - Anything below, pitcher is getting "lucky," anything above, the pitcher is getting "unlucky" - It could be due to talent, but usually the sample size is small enough to assume the pitcher has no control.
Danny Miranda
2012 Stats: A: 52.2 IP, 8.20 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 3.25 ERA, .282 BABIP against; A+ - 12.2 IP, 9.24 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 4.26 ERA
Miranda is an intriguing player, because he's a left-handed pitching prospect who can strike out batters at a good rate. He's 22-years-old so he's following the path of the MLB where he'll be 25-years-old if he ever gets to there, so that makes him a whole lot less interesting.
He's not really old enough to where the Cards should push him and advance him to AA so they can fast-track his development. He's also not young enough to be that interesting as a prospect. He's also a reliever, which significantly makes him less likely to make an MLB roster. Still, I'll be watching him as a potential LOOGY.
What to look for in 2013 - Hopefully he starts off well enough to earn a promotion to AA. If he does that, then I really like him as a future LOOGY.
ETA: 2015
Boone Whiting
Stats: A: 16 IP, 7.88 K/9, 0.56 BB/9, 0.56 ERA, .175 BABIP against; AA - 12 IP, 6.75 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, .324 BABIP against
Whiting had a fantastic 2011 season with a 2.55 ERA, a 9.23 K/9, and a 0.83 BB/9. He missed most of 2012 to injury and did alright. His K rate lowered significantly. I mean he didn't pitch much overall. His K rate further declined when the Cardinals skipped him past A+ and his walk rate rose.
Then he pitched in the AFL and erased a lot of concerns. He had an 11.72 K/9 with a 2.84 BB/9. He had a 4.62 ERA, but the AFL is a notorious hitters' league. His high K rate returned despite a mediocre fastball (thanks to an amazing changeup). He's definitely a prospect to watch this year.
What to look for in 2013: Really to see how he does in a full season of AA ball - I'm not sure I know how he'll perform so just look at his overall performance
ETA - 2015
Other pitchers I didn't write about for some reason
Tyrell Jenkins - His 2012 was a step back and he lost a lot of steam as a prospect when the other Cardinals' major pitching prospects stock improved. Still, he's worth looking at to see if he can rebound.
John Gast - He might make an interesting 7th starter option assuming Kelly begins the year in the bullpen. (Or 8th starter option) He kind of bores me as a prospect as he's not a hard-thrower. But he's left-handed and his advanced stats show a performance better than his 5.10 ERA. He's what most teams 6th starter options are so rejoice!
Victor De Leon - He hasn't made it out of rookie league yet. But he's 20-years-old and he had 8.53 K/9. He needs to cut down on the walks though.
Lee Stoppelman - He had a 12.84 K/9 and a 0.79 ERA in A- last year as a reliever. He's 22-years-old so he was old for his league, but still worth following because those stats are insanely good.
(To make this post shorter, I'll just name a player per position now.)
Catcher
Steve Bean
2012 Stats: 154 PAs, .200/.325/.285, .291 BABIP
You know catcher's bad when I pick this player as my prospect to watch. Those stats don't inspire confidence. However, there's a few things to be optimistic about. One, he's younger than me. He was born in 1993. So he'll be playing most of 2013 as a 19-year-old.
Secondly, that walk rate is super encouraging. It means he has patience. He has discipline. Those numbers are across two levels and he had just as much patience when his numbers sucked (.125/.263/.213) as when they were pretty good (.302/.424/.400).
Anyway, he's a catcher so the level of offense expected is pretty low. Yadier Molina has the job locked down for a while too, so the Cardinals can be patient with Bean. Molina's contract ends somewhere around the time Bean would be major league ready. Bean's also the only catching prospect with any potential of starting.
What to look for in 2013 - Just for his numbers to improve at whatever level he is at
ETA - Too far to even pretend to know
First Base
Matt Adams
2012 Stats: 276 PAs, .329/.362/.624, 18 HRs, .360 BABIP; MLB Stats: 92 PAs, .244/.286/.384, 2 HRs, .317 BABIP
You know, before I learned advanced stats, I'm sure I would have loved Matt Adams as a prospect. I'd probably have unrealistic expectations about him. But, I am otherwise lukewarm on him as a prospect. It's not that I don't like him. I love the idea of him as a player. But his MLB stats reflect my concern.
It's not that I think he'll hit .244 in the majors. It's that he plays 1B really. 1B offense is insanely high, and Adams doesn't walk enough and strikes out too much to be able to live up to it as a starter. His hitting is reliant on his average to be .300 for it to be any good. Anyway, this is why I'm a fan of having Adams on our bench. I don't think he's a starter-quality player and it's stupid to waste him in Memphis to get him at-bats when I don't think he has a future as a starter. I love him off the bench though with a good amount of power.
(I kind of cheated with Adams, but I don't like any of their other 1B prospects at all)
What to look for in 2013 - His minor league track record is completely proven so how about some success in the majors?
ETA - Now
Second Base
Kolten Wong
2012 Stats: 579 PAs, .287/.348/.405, 9 HRs, .318 BABIP; AFL - 76 PAs, .324/.342/.392, HR, .371 BABIP
Wong, a 1st round pick, had a bit of a disappointing year in 2012, at least in terms of what I expected. Granted, that's about as good of a season as disappointing years come, but he definitely declined from 2011. Perhaps I raised my expectations to unrealistic measures after he batted .335 with a .401 OBP in 2011.
Still, unrealistic or not, he hit for a worse average, walked less, struck out more, and had less power, all in the hitter's park in Springfield. I may be overstating my point though, because he advanced past High A to get to AA. His hitting is still considered about average, his defense plays at 2B, and he's only 22-years-old.
What to look for in 2013 - I'll be looking for his numbers to improve in AAA, but I suppose there's a good argument it's good if he just maintains his line.
ETA - 2014
Shortstop
Greg Garcia
2012 Stats: 504 PAs, .284/.408/.420, 10 HRs, .334 BABIP
The root of my disappointment with Wong probably lies in how much better Garcia was than Wong in 2012. Yes, Garcia's a year older than Wong and yes, his development followed the traditional path of succeeding at each level before advancing instead of skipping a level. It's still weird to see a 7th round pick outperform a 1st round pick. Garcia can even play a more premium position!
I'm not really giving Garcia enough credit though. He walks in 15.9% of his plate appearances and strikes out in 12.1% of them. To repeat, last year he walked more than he struck out. I automatically am predisposed to liking this prospect. Add a good amount of pop at a middle infield position and this guy is downright exciting to project.
What to look for in 2013 - Um, hopefully he comes close to his AA numbers in AAA, but I expect a decline. Still, he'll have to fall off a cliff for him to stop being interesting.
ETA - mid-2013
Outfield
Oscar Taveras
2012 Stats: 531 PAs, .321/.380/.572, 23 HRs, .323 BABIP
Well, you knew this guy was coming. Taveras is being groomed as a future starting outfield right now by Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran, and Yadier Molina. The Cardinals are pulling out all the stops for him. He may not speak clear English right now, but he speaks the universal language of a home run. Or a double. Or a hit. See, that's what he does. He hits the ball a lot.
He had a .321 average with a .323 BABIP. Not many players can have the combination of power and lack of strikeouts to pull that off. Pujols was one of those players. I'm not making the comparison though. Those stats are beautiful to look at though.
What to look for in 2013 - Well, for him to do it in AAA, I guess. The way he played in Spring Training, I'm not really worried about it though.
ETA - mid-2013
Colin Walsh
2012 Stats: 425 PAs, .314/.419/.530, 16 HRs, .343 BABIP
Here's the outfield spot that goes to the "old for his league, but his stats are impossible to ignore" guy. A close second is Mike O'Neil, but ultimately a 24-year-old in A+ is not impressive if I'm talking possible MLB players. Walsh is 22-years-old in A, which is old, but if he advances a level a year, he ends up in the MLB by 26. With those stats, there's a decent argument to skip him past a level, which he might do. I'd put him in AA personally for 2013 to see how he adjusts.
Anyway, there's a lot of things to love in those stats, namely a sustainable .314 average, the ability to walk at a high rate, and good power. With a 14.1% BB rate, he hits on my soft spot for prospects. If a guy walks at a high rate, I'm almost guaranteed to like him. Think Tyler Greene.
What to look for in 2013 - Well, my ideal would be in AA and see how he adjusts. Not sure that'll happen so hopefully if he gets sent to A+, rakes, and quickly advances to AA by end of year.
ETA - 2015
James Ramsey
2012: 247 PAs, .229/.333/.314, HR, .309 BABIP
Well, just about everyone hated this pick last year (well anyone who doesn't trot out the "trust the organization" any time they do something stupid) and his performance last year did little to dissuade anyone. Still, he's worth following, because he's still just 22-years-old, the Cardinals generally hit on their 1st round picks, and he'll get a fresh start now.
That line is not encouraging though. His average is low and it seems he's not getting unlucky either due to his BABIP. He has not much power in his arsenal. He walked in 13.4% of his plate appearances, but that's not really enough to make you a good player.
What to look for in 2013 - Higher average with the same amount of walks and power would be a start
ETA - Too impossible to project
Also, search on google a list of the Top 20 Prospects for the Cardinals and you should follow them as well. Some of them will be in the majors the entire year, some of them will be on this list, and some of them you may have no idea why they are.
This is just my personal list of players I'm following, plus a few more that I decided to not include. Knowing how the farm is doing will make it that much more exciting when they advance to the big leagues. (It's also got it's rather disappointing moments, such as Bryan Anderson or Daryl Jones)
Catcher
Steve Bean
2012 Stats: 154 PAs, .200/.325/.285, .291 BABIP
You know catcher's bad when I pick this player as my prospect to watch. Those stats don't inspire confidence. However, there's a few things to be optimistic about. One, he's younger than me. He was born in 1993. So he'll be playing most of 2013 as a 19-year-old.
Secondly, that walk rate is super encouraging. It means he has patience. He has discipline. Those numbers are across two levels and he had just as much patience when his numbers sucked (.125/.263/.213) as when they were pretty good (.302/.424/.400).
Anyway, he's a catcher so the level of offense expected is pretty low. Yadier Molina has the job locked down for a while too, so the Cardinals can be patient with Bean. Molina's contract ends somewhere around the time Bean would be major league ready. Bean's also the only catching prospect with any potential of starting.
What to look for in 2013 - Just for his numbers to improve at whatever level he is at
ETA - Too far to even pretend to know
First Base
Matt Adams
2012 Stats: 276 PAs, .329/.362/.624, 18 HRs, .360 BABIP; MLB Stats: 92 PAs, .244/.286/.384, 2 HRs, .317 BABIP
You know, before I learned advanced stats, I'm sure I would have loved Matt Adams as a prospect. I'd probably have unrealistic expectations about him. But, I am otherwise lukewarm on him as a prospect. It's not that I don't like him. I love the idea of him as a player. But his MLB stats reflect my concern.
It's not that I think he'll hit .244 in the majors. It's that he plays 1B really. 1B offense is insanely high, and Adams doesn't walk enough and strikes out too much to be able to live up to it as a starter. His hitting is reliant on his average to be .300 for it to be any good. Anyway, this is why I'm a fan of having Adams on our bench. I don't think he's a starter-quality player and it's stupid to waste him in Memphis to get him at-bats when I don't think he has a future as a starter. I love him off the bench though with a good amount of power.
(I kind of cheated with Adams, but I don't like any of their other 1B prospects at all)
What to look for in 2013 - His minor league track record is completely proven so how about some success in the majors?
ETA - Now
Second Base
Kolten Wong
2012 Stats: 579 PAs, .287/.348/.405, 9 HRs, .318 BABIP; AFL - 76 PAs, .324/.342/.392, HR, .371 BABIP
Wong, a 1st round pick, had a bit of a disappointing year in 2012, at least in terms of what I expected. Granted, that's about as good of a season as disappointing years come, but he definitely declined from 2011. Perhaps I raised my expectations to unrealistic measures after he batted .335 with a .401 OBP in 2011.
Still, unrealistic or not, he hit for a worse average, walked less, struck out more, and had less power, all in the hitter's park in Springfield. I may be overstating my point though, because he advanced past High A to get to AA. His hitting is still considered about average, his defense plays at 2B, and he's only 22-years-old.
What to look for in 2013 - I'll be looking for his numbers to improve in AAA, but I suppose there's a good argument it's good if he just maintains his line.
ETA - 2014
Shortstop
Greg Garcia
2012 Stats: 504 PAs, .284/.408/.420, 10 HRs, .334 BABIP
The root of my disappointment with Wong probably lies in how much better Garcia was than Wong in 2012. Yes, Garcia's a year older than Wong and yes, his development followed the traditional path of succeeding at each level before advancing instead of skipping a level. It's still weird to see a 7th round pick outperform a 1st round pick. Garcia can even play a more premium position!
I'm not really giving Garcia enough credit though. He walks in 15.9% of his plate appearances and strikes out in 12.1% of them. To repeat, last year he walked more than he struck out. I automatically am predisposed to liking this prospect. Add a good amount of pop at a middle infield position and this guy is downright exciting to project.
What to look for in 2013 - Um, hopefully he comes close to his AA numbers in AAA, but I expect a decline. Still, he'll have to fall off a cliff for him to stop being interesting.
ETA - mid-2013
Outfield
Oscar Taveras
2012 Stats: 531 PAs, .321/.380/.572, 23 HRs, .323 BABIP
Well, you knew this guy was coming. Taveras is being groomed as a future starting outfield right now by Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran, and Yadier Molina. The Cardinals are pulling out all the stops for him. He may not speak clear English right now, but he speaks the universal language of a home run. Or a double. Or a hit. See, that's what he does. He hits the ball a lot.
He had a .321 average with a .323 BABIP. Not many players can have the combination of power and lack of strikeouts to pull that off. Pujols was one of those players. I'm not making the comparison though. Those stats are beautiful to look at though.
What to look for in 2013 - Well, for him to do it in AAA, I guess. The way he played in Spring Training, I'm not really worried about it though.
ETA - mid-2013
Colin Walsh
2012 Stats: 425 PAs, .314/.419/.530, 16 HRs, .343 BABIP
Here's the outfield spot that goes to the "old for his league, but his stats are impossible to ignore" guy. A close second is Mike O'Neil, but ultimately a 24-year-old in A+ is not impressive if I'm talking possible MLB players. Walsh is 22-years-old in A, which is old, but if he advances a level a year, he ends up in the MLB by 26. With those stats, there's a decent argument to skip him past a level, which he might do. I'd put him in AA personally for 2013 to see how he adjusts.
Anyway, there's a lot of things to love in those stats, namely a sustainable .314 average, the ability to walk at a high rate, and good power. With a 14.1% BB rate, he hits on my soft spot for prospects. If a guy walks at a high rate, I'm almost guaranteed to like him. Think Tyler Greene.
What to look for in 2013 - Well, my ideal would be in AA and see how he adjusts. Not sure that'll happen so hopefully if he gets sent to A+, rakes, and quickly advances to AA by end of year.
ETA - 2015
James Ramsey
2012: 247 PAs, .229/.333/.314, HR, .309 BABIP
Well, just about everyone hated this pick last year (well anyone who doesn't trot out the "trust the organization" any time they do something stupid) and his performance last year did little to dissuade anyone. Still, he's worth following, because he's still just 22-years-old, the Cardinals generally hit on their 1st round picks, and he'll get a fresh start now.
That line is not encouraging though. His average is low and it seems he's not getting unlucky either due to his BABIP. He has not much power in his arsenal. He walked in 13.4% of his plate appearances, but that's not really enough to make you a good player.
What to look for in 2013 - Higher average with the same amount of walks and power would be a start
ETA - Too impossible to project
Also, search on google a list of the Top 20 Prospects for the Cardinals and you should follow them as well. Some of them will be in the majors the entire year, some of them will be on this list, and some of them you may have no idea why they are.
This is just my personal list of players I'm following, plus a few more that I decided to not include. Knowing how the farm is doing will make it that much more exciting when they advance to the big leagues. (It's also got it's rather disappointing moments, such as Bryan Anderson or Daryl Jones)
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