And no I don't care at all that Tony LaRussa didn't win it. I don't know who the best manager was, but it certainly wasn't Tony. If you give him credit for the miraculous comeback (and really with the talent he has, that's a bit ridiculous in my opinion), then you have to give him credit for the miraculous failure between June and August. The playoffs are where he really "earned" the Manager of the Year and they vote on the award before they begin.
Back to the topic at hand and the reason I wrote this post, I will post my picks for the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young. For the sake of discussion perhaps, I have put forth the Top 10 candidates on my ballot for the MVP voting. To say the least, I have different ballots than what ended up being the final decision.
Here is my AL MVP list first:
1. Jose Bautista, RF - Blue Jays - .302/.447/.608, 43 HRs (Best Stat: 132 BBs)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - Red Sox - .321/.376/.552, 32 HRs (Best Stat: 39 SBs)
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B - Tigers - .344/.448/.566, 30 HRs (Best Stat: 48 Doubles)
4. Justin Verlander, SP - Tigers - 251 IP, 2.40 ERA, 8.96 K/9, 4.39 K/BB (Best Stat: 80.3% LOB rate)
5. Curtis Granderson, CF - Tigers - .262/.364/.552, 41 HRs (Best Stat: 10 3Bs)
6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - Red Sox - .307/.387.474, 21 HRs, (Best Stat: 26 SBs)
7. Ian Kinsler, 2B - Rangers - .255/.355/.477, 32 HRs, (Best Stat: 121 runs)
8. CC Sabathia, SP - Yankees - 237.1 IP, 3.00 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 3.77 K/BB
9. Ben Zobrist, OF - Rays - .269/.353/.469, 20 HRs (Best Stat: 46 doubles)
10. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - Red Sox - .338/.410/.548, 27 HRs (Best Stat: .380 BABIP)
Disclaimer: I believe that pitchers should have the ability to win MVPs. I just think this year, there were too many hitters who had ridiculously good seasons for Verlander to surpass them. For a pitcher to win an MVP, he either needs to be historically amazing (which Verlander wasn't) or be really good where there were no great hitters (which was not even close to true).
As far as best stat is concerned, it explained my decision making in some. With Verlander, you need to know two stats: BABIP against and LOB% which I put above. Verlander had a 80.3% LOB rate against the league average LOB% rate of 70-72%. Verlander's LOB% rate for his career is a "measly" 73.3%. In short, he usually doesn't leave 80.3% of baserunners stranded.
Also, in 2011, opposing hitters had a .236 batting average on balls in play against Verlander. Traditionally, hitters have a .300 average on balls in play. Basically when hitters put the ball in play, it will be a hit 30% of the time. This year, the average batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .290 and Verlander's career BABIP against is .285. So you would expect his to be below the league average.
Also, in 2011, opposing hitters had a .236 batting average on balls in play against Verlander. Traditionally, hitters have a .300 average on balls in play. Basically when hitters put the ball in play, it will be a hit 30% of the time. This year, the average batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .290 and Verlander's career BABIP against is .285. So you would expect his to be below the league average.
However, his BABIP against is so dramatically below league average that it is safe to say that a little luck was involved in his great performance. For comparison's sake, the top 5 pitchers in BABIP against last year where Trevor Cahill (.236; 2.97 ERA), Bronson Arroyo (.239, 3.88), Ted Lilly (.247, 3.62), Tim Hudson (.249; 2.83), and Jonathan Sanchez (.252; 2.07). Naturally, none of these were sustainable so in 2011, they all regressed: Cahill (.302, 4.16), Arroyo (.278, 5.71), Lilly (.260, 4.21), Hudson (.273, 3.39), and Sanchez (.272, 4.26). All five pitchers had a worse ERA when their BABIP against increased. And all five pitchers had their BABIPs dramatically get worse (at least a .013 increase).
Anyway, the point being, Verlander is not as good as his .236 BABIP indicated. If he were to have been a little less lucky, his ERA would not be 2.40 and he probably wouldn't have 24 wins (Though I do not support using wins as evidence in the first place). While his 2.40 ERA in the first place doesn't convince me he's better than any of the hitters, the fact that he probably got lucky in addition solidified my original position for me.
As for the actual choice, I felt Bautista was a far superior hitter to Ellsbury, who was unheralded despite having a great hitting line with elite defense at a premium position. I just couldn't get over the ridiculous disparity in OBP (.447 to .376) and slugging percentage (.608 to .552). Miguel Cabrera was about as good at hitting as Bautista but he plays 1B - and badly - while Ellsbury is one of the best defenders in center field.
Moving on to the National MVP, I've heard grumblings that Matt Kemp deserved it over Ryan Braun and it's hard to disagree. They had nearly identical hitting lines but Kemp plays in a pitcher's park (Braun in a hitter's park) and Kemp plays CF (Braun in LF). While Kemp's defense won him a Gold Glove, there are many defensive metrics that say he's not good at fielding. I'll go in between and say he's average which is still better than Braun's atrocious fielding. I don't see much argument for Braun over Kemp except maybe that he was on a winning team which is a preposterous argument given that if Braun and Kemp switched teams, the Dodgers would still not make the playoffs while the Brewers would still make the playoffs with Kemp. I won't argue any further on the matter but here's my Top 10 MVPs for the NL:
1. Matt Kemp, CF - Dodgers - .324/.399/.586, 39 HRs (Best Stat: 40 SBs)
2. Ryan Braun, LF - Brewers - .332/.397/.597, 33 HRs (Best Stat: .265 Isolated Power*)
3. Roy Halladay, SP - Phillies - 233.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 (Best Stat: .298 BABIP against)
4. Joey Votto, 1B - Reds - .309/.416/.531, 29 HRs (Best Stat: 3rd place)
5. Clayton Kershaw, SP - Dodgers - 233.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 9.57 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 (Best Stat: .269 BABIP against)
6. Jose Reyes, SS - Mets - .337/.384/.493, 7 HRs (Best Stat: 39 SBs)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS - Rockies - .302/.372/.544, 30 HRs (Best Stat: +7.3 UZR)
8. Justin Upton, RF - Diamondbacks - .289/.369/.529, 31 HRs (Best Stat: .319 BABIP)
9. Prince Fielder, 1B - Brewers - .299/.415/.566, 38 HRs (Best Stat: .267 Isolated Power)
10. Lance Berkman, RF - Cardinals - .301/.412/.547, 31 HRs (Best Stat: 15.7% BB rate)
I'll just jump straight into the NL Cy Young since the Top 10 kind of gave away my choice:
1. Roy Halladay, SP - Phillies - 233.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 (Telling Stat: 6.3 K/BB)
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP - Dodgers - 233.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 9.57 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 (Telling Stat: 4.6 K/BB)
3. Cliff Lee, SP - Phillies - 232.2 IP, 2.40 ERA, 9.21 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 (Telling Stat: 18 homers allowed)
4. Madison Bumgarner, SP - Giants - 204.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.02 BB/9 (Telling Stat: .322 BABIP against)
5. Matt Cain, SP - Giants - 221.2 IP, 2.88 ERA, 7.27 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 (Telling Stat: .260 BABIP against)
It's important to remember that in the context of my voting that I don't care how many wins a player has because he has no control over them. One just needs to look at the 13-13 Madison Bumgarner or the 11-9 Chris Carpenter to see that. Are they really just average pitchers? Obviously, they are not so I cannot accept that a win-loss record tells us much of anything.
To make sense of my decision then, note that Halladay, Kershaw, and Lee all have identical innings pitched with similar ERAs. None of them distinguish themselves all that much using the two stats that matter most (in my opinion). So, the next logical step to most people would be to look at wins. I disregard wins so my next step is to look at how many strikeouts a pitcher has, how many walks they have, and how many homers they have.
Right away I noticed Cliff Lee allowed 18 homers, three more than Kershaw and eight more than Halladay. He's out of the conversation now. The BBs and Ks are hard to distinguish by themselves, but if I look at their ratio of strikeouts to walk, the picture becomes much clearer. Halladay has a 6.3 K/BB while Kershaw's is 4.6 (which by the way is still amazing). When I added in the five homer differential and the fact that Halladay pitches in the notorious hitter's park Citizens Bank Park, then it was clearly Halladay who had to win the Cy Young. Obviously the voters disagreed and I can't complain a whole lot of their selection.
I won't waste my time explaining my AL Cy Young as it is obvious who I would pick. Justin Verlander, while I don't agree was the most valuable player, was the best pitcher. I won't even bother with a list or an explanation because this post is already too long. In summary, my four picks would be:
NL MVP: Matt Kemp
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL MVP: Jose Bautista
AL CY Young: Justin Verlander
Lastly, for fun, I'll post the fielders who rated most positively in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and the winners of the Gold Gloves UZR as well to compare the manager's selections with the metrics selections:
1B: Joey Votto (+7.4)
Best: Carlos Lee (+11.2)
2B: Brandon Phillips (+11.4)
Best: Phillips
3B: Placido Polance (+14)
Best: Polanco
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (+7.3)
Best: Clint Barmes (+7.9)
OF1: Gerrado Parra (+9.6)
OF2: Matt Kemp (-4.6)
OF3: Andre Either (+5.3)
Best1: Chris Young (+14.1)
Best2: Brian Bogusevic (+12.1)
Best3: Carlos Gomez (+12)
Catcher's defense is so hard to quantify and pitcher's defense isn't calculated by UZR so I just skipped them both. They made the right decision five times (Votto, Polanco, Phillips, Tulo, Parra) and the wrong decision with two outfield spots. Ethier was one of the worst defenders in the MLB the past three seasons before posting a positive UZR. Kemp is probably not that bad at defense but he's certainly not one of the top three.
Parra has been rated very well with UZR for the past few seasons so he's just a tremendous fielder. Carlos Lee is not likely that good at fielding as he did not play 1B all season so there's not a great enough sample. Phillips and Polanco were the best in both manager's minds and stats. Tulowitzki was close enough to Barmes that it's almost an insignificant difference.
As for the American League:
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (+10.7)
Best: Gonzalez
2B: Dustin Pedroia (+17.9)
Best: Pedroia
3B: Adrian Beltre (+11.2)
Best: Beltre
SS: Erick Aybar (+1.2)
Best: Alexei Ramirez (+11.9)
OF1: Alex Gordon (+9.6)
OF2: Nick Markakis (-4.7)
OF3: Jacoby Ellsbury (+15.6)
Best1: Brett Gardner (+25.8)
Best2: Ellsbury
Best3: Franklin Guttierez (+15.2)
Well there must be something about the infield that makes it easier than the outfield. There were four right this time with again one outfielder being correct. This time Erick Aybar was inexplicably chosen. Better than Derek Jeter but still odd. Nick Markakis is the other perplexing decision. I don't think he LOOKs like a Gold Glove defender, but managers make some odd decisions.
Gordon is acceptable and Ellsbury is spot on. Brett Gardner was far and away the best fielder. It's hard to believe the voters didn't see what the numbers said in this case because of how dramatically better Gardner was. Beltre, Gonzalez, and Pedroia were all the best in both departments.
Anyway, the point being, Verlander is not as good as his .236 BABIP indicated. If he were to have been a little less lucky, his ERA would not be 2.40 and he probably wouldn't have 24 wins (Though I do not support using wins as evidence in the first place). While his 2.40 ERA in the first place doesn't convince me he's better than any of the hitters, the fact that he probably got lucky in addition solidified my original position for me.
As for the actual choice, I felt Bautista was a far superior hitter to Ellsbury, who was unheralded despite having a great hitting line with elite defense at a premium position. I just couldn't get over the ridiculous disparity in OBP (.447 to .376) and slugging percentage (.608 to .552). Miguel Cabrera was about as good at hitting as Bautista but he plays 1B - and badly - while Ellsbury is one of the best defenders in center field.
Moving on to the National MVP, I've heard grumblings that Matt Kemp deserved it over Ryan Braun and it's hard to disagree. They had nearly identical hitting lines but Kemp plays in a pitcher's park (Braun in a hitter's park) and Kemp plays CF (Braun in LF). While Kemp's defense won him a Gold Glove, there are many defensive metrics that say he's not good at fielding. I'll go in between and say he's average which is still better than Braun's atrocious fielding. I don't see much argument for Braun over Kemp except maybe that he was on a winning team which is a preposterous argument given that if Braun and Kemp switched teams, the Dodgers would still not make the playoffs while the Brewers would still make the playoffs with Kemp. I won't argue any further on the matter but here's my Top 10 MVPs for the NL:
1. Matt Kemp, CF - Dodgers - .324/.399/.586, 39 HRs (Best Stat: 40 SBs)
2. Ryan Braun, LF - Brewers - .332/.397/.597, 33 HRs (Best Stat: .265 Isolated Power*)
3. Roy Halladay, SP - Phillies - 233.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 (Best Stat: .298 BABIP against)
4. Joey Votto, 1B - Reds - .309/.416/.531, 29 HRs (Best Stat: 3rd place)
5. Clayton Kershaw, SP - Dodgers - 233.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 9.57 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 (Best Stat: .269 BABIP against)
6. Jose Reyes, SS - Mets - .337/.384/.493, 7 HRs (Best Stat: 39 SBs)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS - Rockies - .302/.372/.544, 30 HRs (Best Stat: +7.3 UZR)
8. Justin Upton, RF - Diamondbacks - .289/.369/.529, 31 HRs (Best Stat: .319 BABIP)
9. Prince Fielder, 1B - Brewers - .299/.415/.566, 38 HRs (Best Stat: .267 Isolated Power)
10. Lance Berkman, RF - Cardinals - .301/.412/.547, 31 HRs (Best Stat: 15.7% BB rate)
I'll just jump straight into the NL Cy Young since the Top 10 kind of gave away my choice:
1. Roy Halladay, SP - Phillies - 233.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 (Telling Stat: 6.3 K/BB)
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP - Dodgers - 233.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 9.57 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 (Telling Stat: 4.6 K/BB)
3. Cliff Lee, SP - Phillies - 232.2 IP, 2.40 ERA, 9.21 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 (Telling Stat: 18 homers allowed)
4. Madison Bumgarner, SP - Giants - 204.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.02 BB/9 (Telling Stat: .322 BABIP against)
5. Matt Cain, SP - Giants - 221.2 IP, 2.88 ERA, 7.27 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 (Telling Stat: .260 BABIP against)
It's important to remember that in the context of my voting that I don't care how many wins a player has because he has no control over them. One just needs to look at the 13-13 Madison Bumgarner or the 11-9 Chris Carpenter to see that. Are they really just average pitchers? Obviously, they are not so I cannot accept that a win-loss record tells us much of anything.
To make sense of my decision then, note that Halladay, Kershaw, and Lee all have identical innings pitched with similar ERAs. None of them distinguish themselves all that much using the two stats that matter most (in my opinion). So, the next logical step to most people would be to look at wins. I disregard wins so my next step is to look at how many strikeouts a pitcher has, how many walks they have, and how many homers they have.
Right away I noticed Cliff Lee allowed 18 homers, three more than Kershaw and eight more than Halladay. He's out of the conversation now. The BBs and Ks are hard to distinguish by themselves, but if I look at their ratio of strikeouts to walk, the picture becomes much clearer. Halladay has a 6.3 K/BB while Kershaw's is 4.6 (which by the way is still amazing). When I added in the five homer differential and the fact that Halladay pitches in the notorious hitter's park Citizens Bank Park, then it was clearly Halladay who had to win the Cy Young. Obviously the voters disagreed and I can't complain a whole lot of their selection.
I won't waste my time explaining my AL Cy Young as it is obvious who I would pick. Justin Verlander, while I don't agree was the most valuable player, was the best pitcher. I won't even bother with a list or an explanation because this post is already too long. In summary, my four picks would be:
NL MVP: Matt Kemp
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL MVP: Jose Bautista
AL CY Young: Justin Verlander
Lastly, for fun, I'll post the fielders who rated most positively in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and the winners of the Gold Gloves UZR as well to compare the manager's selections with the metrics selections:
1B: Joey Votto (+7.4)
Best: Carlos Lee (+11.2)
2B: Brandon Phillips (+11.4)
Best: Phillips
3B: Placido Polance (+14)
Best: Polanco
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (+7.3)
Best: Clint Barmes (+7.9)
OF1: Gerrado Parra (+9.6)
OF2: Matt Kemp (-4.6)
OF3: Andre Either (+5.3)
Best1: Chris Young (+14.1)
Best2: Brian Bogusevic (+12.1)
Best3: Carlos Gomez (+12)
Catcher's defense is so hard to quantify and pitcher's defense isn't calculated by UZR so I just skipped them both. They made the right decision five times (Votto, Polanco, Phillips, Tulo, Parra) and the wrong decision with two outfield spots. Ethier was one of the worst defenders in the MLB the past three seasons before posting a positive UZR. Kemp is probably not that bad at defense but he's certainly not one of the top three.
Parra has been rated very well with UZR for the past few seasons so he's just a tremendous fielder. Carlos Lee is not likely that good at fielding as he did not play 1B all season so there's not a great enough sample. Phillips and Polanco were the best in both manager's minds and stats. Tulowitzki was close enough to Barmes that it's almost an insignificant difference.
As for the American League:
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (+10.7)
Best: Gonzalez
2B: Dustin Pedroia (+17.9)
Best: Pedroia
3B: Adrian Beltre (+11.2)
Best: Beltre
SS: Erick Aybar (+1.2)
Best: Alexei Ramirez (+11.9)
OF1: Alex Gordon (+9.6)
OF2: Nick Markakis (-4.7)
OF3: Jacoby Ellsbury (+15.6)
Best1: Brett Gardner (+25.8)
Best2: Ellsbury
Best3: Franklin Guttierez (+15.2)
Well there must be something about the infield that makes it easier than the outfield. There were four right this time with again one outfielder being correct. This time Erick Aybar was inexplicably chosen. Better than Derek Jeter but still odd. Nick Markakis is the other perplexing decision. I don't think he LOOKs like a Gold Glove defender, but managers make some odd decisions.
Gordon is acceptable and Ellsbury is spot on. Brett Gardner was far and away the best fielder. It's hard to believe the voters didn't see what the numbers said in this case because of how dramatically better Gardner was. Beltre, Gonzalez, and Pedroia were all the best in both departments.
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